What it corrects
Forecasting asks which future will arrive. A fragility audit asks a different question: which dependency can destroy the plan across many futures? It looks for concentrated downside, single points of failure, and conditions the recommendation silently assumes will remain stable.
The goal is positioning, not perfect prediction.
How it works
- List every major dependency in the recommendation.
- Describe what happens if each dependency breaks.
- Rate the consequence and rough likelihood.
- Remove the largest single point of failure or buy an option before it is needed.
In a Business Case Weekly case
In the Nike case, dependence on one supplier is not merely one forecast variable. It is a structural exposure. The audit asks what breaks if that dependency changes and which option reduces the company’s need to predict the supplier correctly.
In your answer
- “This recommendation depends critically on …”
- “If it breaks, the consequence is …”
- “I limit that downside by … without assuming I can predict it.”
Common misuse
Redundancy is not always valuable. Backups add cost and complexity. Audit the consequence first, then protect only the dependencies whose failure is material enough to justify the price.