Judgment Playbook

Steel-man

State the strongest opposing case so well that its advocate would recognise it.

What it corrects

A recommendation feels stronger when the rejected option is described badly. That is an illusion. Steel-manning requires you to state the strongest opposing case in terms its advocate would accept, including its objective, evidence, and trade-off.

Only then can commitment mean more than ignoring inconvenient information.

How it works

  1. Choose the strongest credible alternative, not the easiest target.
  2. State its objective and best case evidence fairly.
  3. Name the condition under which it would be right.
  4. Explain why your chosen option still wins on the stated objective.

In a Business Case Weekly case

In the Nike case, the case for preserving the existing distribution business should not be reduced to timidity. It can protect cash, relationships, and operational focus. A strong answer explains why those real benefits do or do not outweigh the dependency being considered.

In your answer

  • “The strongest case for the alternative is …”
  • “It would be right if …”
  • “I reject it here because the case establishes …”

Common misuse

Do not write a flattering paragraph and then ignore it. The opposing case must change the comparison: sharpen the trade-off, lower confidence, add a condition, or force a better defence.

Two-way / one-way door

Next method

Match decision speed and evidence depth to how costly the choice is to reverse.

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